WN 856 · PHX → SAT

departs 12:56 PM MT · arrives 5:13 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SAT that day

↑ 12pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ SAT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 856 · PHX → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?