Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 8607
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 8607 · SFO → OAK
departs 3:30 AM PT · arrives 4:01 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.