Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 866
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 866 · TPA → ATL
departs 8:29 AM ET · arrives 10:07 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 15%
Mon 11/2 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
TPA is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↓
8am departures from TPA are usually not late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ATL (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.