Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 9005
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Today
WN 9005 · AMA → AUS
departs 3:16 PM CT · arrives 4:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave AMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AMA
↓
AMA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AMA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.