Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 945
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 945 · BWI → BUF
departs 12:43 PM ET · arrives 2:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 22%
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
12pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Arrivals into BUF at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
BUF (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.