Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 981
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 981 · BOS → BWI
departs 10:05 PM ET · arrives 11:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 54%
Mon 11/2 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
10pm departures from BOS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.