WS 1101 · PHX → YEG

departs 7:51 PM MT · arrives 12:20 AM MDT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at YEG more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YEG?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at YEG that day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Arrivals into YEG at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YEG (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WS 1101 · PHX → YEG

Odds over time

How late will it get to YEG?