Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
WESTJET · FLIGHT WS 1500
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WS 1500 · YYC → SFO
departs 10:00 AM MDT · arrives 11:53 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Wed 10/28 51%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 31%
Sat 10/31 26%
Sun 11/1 41%
Mon 11/2 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave YYC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at YYC
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
YYC (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.