Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
WESTJET · FLIGHT WS 1581
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WS 1581 · SNA → YYC
departs 5:56 PM PT · arrives 10:03 PM MDT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Sun 11/1 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at YYC more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YYC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at YYC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to YYC?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at YYC
↓
YYC usually runs smoothly
↓
Arrivals into YYC at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
YYC (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.