Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 1705
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
Y4 1705 · ORD → GDL
departs 1:54 PM CT · arrives 5:03 PM CST
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 22%
Sat 10/31 35%
Sun 11/1 27%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at GDL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GDL?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GDL
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GDL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.