Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 1716
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
Y4 1716 · GDL → LAX
departs 3:56 PM CST · arrives 6:17 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Wed 10/28 14%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 21%
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 23%
Mon 11/2 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave GDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GDL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
GDL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.