Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 1753
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
Y4 1753 · SAT → GDL
departs 8:33 PM CT · arrives 9:41 PM CST
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Wed 10/28 10%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 11%
Sat 10/31 9%
Mon 11/2 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±3 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at GDL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GDL?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at SAT that day
↑
8pm departures from SAT are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GDL
↓
Y4's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.17 in
GDL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.