Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 1772
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
Y4 1772 · GDL → OAK
departs 6:30 PM CST · arrives 9:26 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 21%
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 29%
Mon 11/2 22%
Tue 11/3 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave GDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Arrivals into OAK at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GDL
Weather at each end
GDL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.