Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 1833
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
Y4 1833 · FAT → GDL
departs 12:47 AM PT · arrives 5:34 AM CST
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 10%
Sat 10/31 9%
Sun 11/1 10%
Mon 11/2 9%
Tue 11/3 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.2d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at GDL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GDL?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
FAT is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GDL
Weather at each end
FAT (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
GDL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.