Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 1851
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
Y4 1851 · SEA → GDL
departs 11:01 PM PT · arrives 5:13 AM CST
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 16%
Mon 11/2 14%
Tue 11/3 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±4 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
7.1d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at GDL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GDL?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GDL
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.04 in
GDL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.