Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 1863
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
Y4 1863 · ONT → GDL
departs 9:35 PM PT · arrives 1:51 AM CST
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 11%
Sat 10/31 10%
Sun 11/1 11%
Mon 11/2 8%
Tue 11/3 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at GDL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GDL?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GDL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ONT
Weather at each end
ONT (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
GDL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.