Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 1870
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
Y4 1870 · GDL → PDX
departs 4:33 PM CST · arrives 8:37 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Wed 10/28 15%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 19%
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave GDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at PDX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PDX?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PDX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GDL
↓
Y4's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
GDL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PDX (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.