Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 1871
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
Y4 1871 · PDX → GDL
departs 11:12 PM PT · arrives 5:13 AM CST
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 11%
Sat 10/31 10%
Sun 11/1 10%
Mon 11/2 10%
Tue 11/3 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±3 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
7.1d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at GDL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to GDL?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GDL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX
Weather at each end
PDX (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 0.01 in
GDL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.