Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 1964
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
Y4 1964 · GDL → DTW
departs 12:01 AM CST · arrives 6:34 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/28 14%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 18%
Sun 11/1 18%
Mon 11/2 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.1d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave GDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Other factors
↑
Y4's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GDL
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
GDL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.