Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 1988
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
Y4 1988 · GDL → IAD
departs 10:47 PM CST · arrives 5:48 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Sat 10/31 14%
Tue 11/3 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave GDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GDL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
Weather at each end
GDL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.