Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 701
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
Y4 701 · ORD → MEX
departs 7:43 AM CT · arrives 10:45 AM CST
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Wed 10/28 13%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 21%
Mon 11/2 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at MEX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEX?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MEX (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.