Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 761
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
Y4 761 · DEN → MEX
departs 1:57 PM MT · arrives 5:32 PM CST
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 14%
Sat 10/31 13%
Sun 11/1 15%
Mon 11/2 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±4 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at MEX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEX?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEX
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MEX (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.