Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 781
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
Y4 781 · MCO → MEX
departs 6:18 PM ET · arrives 7:41 PM CST
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 20%
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±6 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MEX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MEX?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at MCO that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEX
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.15 in
MEX (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.