Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 801
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
Y4 801 · DFW → MEX
departs 9:07 PM CT · arrives 10:47 PM CST
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 25%
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±4 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at MEX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEX?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEX
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MEX (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.