Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 3249 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

YV 3249 · IND → IAD

departs 9:36 PM ET · arrives 11:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IND

↓ IAD usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IND (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 3249 · IND → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?