Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 4023 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

YV 4023 · IAD → SBN

departs 7:03 PM ET · arrives 8:57 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBN?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBN

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ SBN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SBN (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4023 · IAD → SBN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBN?