Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 4046 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

YV 4046 · RIC → IAH

departs 4:40 PM ET · arrives 6:48 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±4 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from RIC are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC

Weather at each end

RIC (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4046 · RIC → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?