Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 6114 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

YV 6114 · IAD → ROC

departs 10:20 PM ET · arrives 11:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ROC?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 10pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft forecast at IAD that day

↓ ROC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

ROC (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6114 · IAD → ROC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ROC?