Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 6133 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

YV 6133 · IAD → IND

departs 10:13 PM ET · arrives 12:20 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IND?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

IND (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6133 · IAD → IND

Odds over time

How late will it get to IND?