Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 6146 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

YV 6146 · IAH → LBB

departs 8:33 PM CT · arrives 10:23 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at LBB more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±3 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LBB?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 567 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at LBB that day

↑ 8pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ IAH usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LBB (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling567 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6146 · IAH → LBB

Odds over time

How late will it get to LBB?