Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 6158 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

YV 6158 · IAH → OKC

departs 2:31 PM CT · arrives 4:09 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OKC?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OKC

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

OKC (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling11,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6158 · IAH → OKC

Odds over time

How late will it get to OKC?