YV 6161 · IAH → SAT

departs 4:53 PM CT · arrives 6:03 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±4 pts +20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into OKC at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OKC

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6161 · IAH → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?