Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 6174 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

YV 6174 · IAH → LBB

departs 9:30 AM CT · arrives 11:20 AM CT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at LBB more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LBB?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at LBB that day

↑ 9am departures from IAH are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LBB (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.29 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6174 · IAH → LBB

Odds over time

How late will it get to LBB?