Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 6187 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

YV 6187 · IAH → SAT

departs 12:12 PM CT · arrives 1:22 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at SAT that day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6187 · IAH → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?