YV 6223 · SBN → IAD

departs 10:00 AM ET · arrives 11:50 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 10am departures from SBN are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SBN (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

IAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6223 · SBN → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?