Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 6276 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

YV 6276 · IAH → MAF

departs 7:45 PM CT · arrives 9:27 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at MAF more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±5 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MAF?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MAF that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ MAF is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MAF (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip0.45 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6276 · IAH → MAF

Odds over time

How late will it get to MAF?