Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 6294 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

YV 6294 · LGA → IAD

departs 7:27 PM ET · arrives 8:50 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6294 · LGA → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?