Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 6338 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

YV 6338 · IAH → MTY

departs 6:53 PM CT · arrives 7:37 PM CST

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at MTY more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MTY?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at MTY that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ MTY usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

MTY (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6338 · IAH → MTY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MTY?