Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3406
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 3406 · RDU → ORD
departs 1:05 PM ET · arrives 2:39 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 34%
Sun 11/1 22%
Mon 11/2 18%
Tue 11/3 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
RDU is prone to delays
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Other factors
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.