YX 3439 · DTW → EWR

took off 5:20 PM ET · expected to land 6:21 PM ET (scheduled 5:08 PM ET → 6:58 PM ET)

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from DTW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.02 in

EWR (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3439 · DTW → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?