Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3445
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 3445 · GSO → EWR
departs 7:10 PM ET · arrives 9:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±4 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave GSO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at GSO that day
Weather at each end
GSO (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.