Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3459
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
YX 3459 · IAD → PWM
departs 10:07 PM ET · arrives 12:05 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Wed 10/28 6%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at PWM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PWM?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from IAD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PWM at that hour are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 100 ft forecast at IAD that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
PWM (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.