Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3462
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 3462 · EWR → YHZ
departs 8:39 PM ET · arrives 11:46 PM ADT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at YHZ more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YHZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at YHZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to YHZ?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
8pm departures from EWR are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at EWR that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
YHZ (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 8.66667 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.