Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3464 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

YX 3464 · ORD → PIT

departs 9:20 PM CT · arrives 11:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 29h before departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PIT?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into PIT at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PIT (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3464 · ORD → PIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIT?