Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3492
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
YX 3492 · IAD → RDU
departs 12:51 PM ET · arrives 2:12 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 10/28 8%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from IAD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↑
IAD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.