YX 3494 · ORD → GRR

took off 6:14 PM CT · landed 7:42 PM ET (scheduled 5:53 PM CT → 8:02 PM ET)

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to GRR?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 13% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GRR (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3494 · ORD → GRR

Odds over time

How late did it get to GRR?