Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3523
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 3523 · ORD → RIC
departs 2:30 PM CT · arrives 5:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 8%
Sat 10/31 28%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 12%
Tue 11/3 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at RIC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RIC?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Arrivals into RIC at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RIC (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.