YX 3526 · PVD → ORD

took off 4:42 PM ET · expected to land 5:53 PM CT (scheduled 4:36 PM ET → 6:27 PM CT)

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PVD

Weather at each end

PVD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3526 · PVD → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?