Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3562
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 3562 · EWR → MKE
departs 4:21 PM ET · arrives 5:46 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 25%
Sat 10/31 31%
Sun 11/1 31%
Mon 11/2 21%
Tue 11/3 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at MKE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MKE?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from EWR are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MKE (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.