Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3563
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 3563 · EWR → MEM
departs 10:02 PM ET · arrives 12:15 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 24%
Sat 10/31 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
10pm departures from EWR are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM
↓
Visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at EWR that day
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
MEM (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.